OIL
Goldman economics team wrote a piece on the implication of high oil price yesterday. The summary is that if higher oil price is due to demand-driven, we would see inflation, aggressive fed hike and slower growth. However if higher oil price is due to supply-shock, we may see recession, fed ease and transitory inflation rise.
Our view is that while there is a good probability that China and US consumer growth can continue to drive this demand, there is also a finite probability that political uncertainty or terrorism can lead to supply shock in the system. Both factors point to higher oil price. While looking at fundamental, JP Morgan's Commodity Outlook and Strategy (April) wrote that Oil supply is definitely on the high side versus 10 year average. The supply situation does not justify the present oil price.
So the question is, why oil is trading 50s. My view is that 50s is not a stable equilibrium but reflecting a balance of the extreme view of 60+ oil price to 30-40 reversal. If vol is cheap, I would be long the wings.
GOLD
Looking that the high oil case, I propose that in both demand-driven and supply-shock, we should hold gold. In the case of inflation or fear, Gold price will rise. Especially if unfortunately we see political uncertainty due to terrorism, the flight to quality may not be US Treasury this time round (due to US political and economic risk - deficits).
RISK PREMIUM
We have been a keen follower of risk premium in the market. While there are certain amount of unwinds in carry trades (such as usd/asian, yield curve, spread products… etc), the risk premium is at a more neutral level rather than towards risk adverse or fear. We determine that by looking at USD/CHF which has moved to its 200day moving average. It certainly still reflects the complacency in the market. In addition, the implied volatility in all asset class is still low. We worry that the market is at an unstable equilibrium at the moment.
CHINA
There is a finite chance that China will revalue its currency. Unless we have a hard landing in China (also a possibility), Chinese government is looking for their window of opportunity to revalue the reminbi. Since the implication that China will not buy as much treasury in the future and possibility that other Asian countries will follow with actions rather with words so far, we see short USD/Asian still being the cheapest way to play this trade.
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1 comment:
I must add that I like AUD here, even though RBA didnt hike rate (5.5% now) and their economics seem to be highly linked to commodity prices. The umeployment rate sits at 5.1% while the country is adding more jobs than most econoomist expected. RBA may have to hike further. As a country which is full of resources and probably free of terror risk, this currency's relative high carry has a low risk premium charm.
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